on tuesday eduardo presented a data set europotato.org : the European Cultivated Potato database
Anne-Laure Buisson, Nomenclatures:
1.central product classification
2.potatoes as products. more complicated as things can be in one category or another one.. in between categories..
see: http://www.fao.org/es/faodef/fdef02e.htm#2.02
Eurostat & FAO start data in 1950s
3. types of farming.
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/rica/detailtf_en.cfm?TF=TF&Version=11990
to say that you farm potato, you have to farm more than 2/3 of your terrain with roots. potatoes/beets/brassicacea
1st task of statician to make sure categories correspond to reality, sometimes adapting reality
in her job, Anne Laure works with a nomenclature of 20K+ descriptors for medical care
nomenclature is supposed to be the best way to describe reality, but in reality it is becomes a way to shape reality.
For example, there are 47 pages of terms for nurses at home; surely this changes how they see themselves!
How to shape the production of goods is very strategical thing
potato is very strategic aliment.
2 problems: mildew( huge irish migration due to the famine caused by this potato disease), and the doryphore (eats the leaf, looks nice)
germans during WWII/Russians in Eastern Ukraine were called doryphores
no flower colour in the data (because no one is interested in that ;-))
She used data from Eurostat & FAO (part of UN)
--> plenty of questions arise:
Potato Data on Belgium, Poland, Germany, France and Russian Federation
Graph on Belgium:
left: production per 1000 ha: went down since 1950 till 1980, went up to almost same height
continuous blue line: volumes of potatos harvested, gets higher since 79; area goes down but production did not
now high production again thanks to 'spring potatos', started as particular market in 90s, more expensive, has been developing a lot
bad publicity on potato consuption (they make you fat) -> this mitgh explain why production went down in 80s (?)
Poland (red line), went down to 5%, same for Germany -- why?
why did the polish stop growing potatoes?
yield per hectar didnt go up so much in reality.. stayed the same vs Belgium/Luxembourg (doubled production /ha)
FAO gives spreading of calories/person/day: for Poland it only was divided by 2, from 400cal to 200cal now came from potatoes.
apparently it was alimentation of pigs, which now comes more from wheat. same for vodka (from wheat)
when the nomenclature or classification is changed it becomes hard to connect and adjust information (the rules change)
when countries are split or joint, nobody thinks of the tough job of the statistician
big part of food production is not on map, because garden production (f.ex. Congo, ...)
what was the effect of Eu subsidies for potato growth (2008 untill 2013)? More export?
strong wave for potato from one year to the other: price of potato is very dependant on harvest - you cannot keep the potatos more than a year
very difficult market to regulate... f.ex. 'sécheresse', drought in Europe between fall 1975 and spring 1976, wheat is much more stable
policies & mechanisation are big influence + weather
catalogues for different species of potatos
nr of varieties inscribed every year, has gone up (60 in the last year)
=== exploratory statistics, not precise, raises interesting questions // how do you deal with them??
=== tomorrow she shows how she got the data & processed it (Libre Office)
Hans Lammerant, Power structures & Big data
Just started Phd, set of observations from which he starts to research
Power notion < Michel Foucault, relational sense, applied through practises that create objects vs static view of hierarchies
Studied Philosophy, then worked in peace organisation
question: what are the military doing? how can we break into political debate & put issues on political agenda
Irak 2003, intervention of US
a lot of US military in Germany, passed Belgium, no one saw it
-> greenpeace style of actions, block military transports
if I look now, I know for the next war: tracked all military transports per day via internet
-> have their own newspaper, ex theater transport
"Theater means the battlefield"
Federal Procurement Data System
finding movements and numbers of the army moving through the US army own news sites, federal data systems etc.
every contract/day
very transparent! very good!
people put lots of pics, from there tracking the company that could do the movements..
-> put together different sources, variety is enorm
f.ex. shipping maps for each company in harbour
then they would announce on the newspapers when/where they would close roads.
crossing all that info, its quite some material to make visible the invisible.
all sorts of acitvities leave a lot of traces
a lot of work to go through all the information
-> started to automate it with screenscrapers, sent mail when a picture would pass
= script that reads the webpage for you, f.ex. if it finds a certain word; using regular expressions with php
you can aggregate things much easier, automate a lot of research, open your eyes more
-> how data makes changes in visibility
-> used a lot of extra material to do the interpretations; datamining would be a way to automate also this
data that matches semantic interpretations -- different techniques create differen visibility
ex. keys
old keys vs electornic keys
train token vs magnetic cards
visible on the spot, no aggregation of data, no memory, no storage, not visible wider vs cards (registers people coming in/out, itineraries, different visibility of activity of people), they can profile what kind of worker/traveler you are --> creates 'objects', behaviour profile, can be used to apply power to
ex. numberplate recognition
Flemish government template: looking at who did not pay insurance, access control... (common ways of controling), looking at transport profiles, ex. people stopping at every gas station in both directions (informal transport of people & objects)
'data double': data clouds created as a shadow behind you which can be used to apply power, make decisions about you
studygroup for Eu: ex. someone from airport phones someone... process can be automatised
after 'Charlie' we'll see new wave to implement that kind of stuff
big changes from technological poitn of view
new mathematical objects: study of networks; model of random networks (from the 50s) to new structures that produce models that are much more applicable to internet
-> look at important node in a network; ex epidemology (before rate of infection/cures vs now localized specific infections, ex. sexual transferrable diseases -> look into interaction networks), same how certain news spreads
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale-free_network
cheaper intervention strategies: look for certain nodes and start there vs intervening everywhere (vaccinate f.ex.)
2 major changes
* Computers: you can calculate a lot more
ex Monte Carlo technique, developed with develpment of nuclear bomb as mechanical calculators with punch cards
* connectivity through internet
they talk about 'big data', but you can identify much smaller objects
ex. rfid chips can track every little thing (vs containers before); phone allows identifiable objects; ip-addresses version4 allow to identify objects much easier
macrostory: organisational structures change, command-control
effects on intermediarities - communication is mediated & organised by companies who offer operating systems, services (like Uber)
-> a lot of changes in social mouvements with internet: easier & wider organisations, networked enterprises, spider in the web
pillar organisations with vertical structures (organising was expensive); social media allows for cheap organisation
entry cost to do something has reduced a lot
effect on the state, how they try to regulate
control a territory, but most social activities are not sitting in that territory.
they control flows that go through their territory
old methods are loosing grip, therefore new ways of controling linked to data-tsunami are being devleoped
An: for the phd, you will collect more data?
Hans: change of data to semantic content, thorugh data-mining etc.. new way of framing things. what does it mean for regulations. anticipative, predictive regulation and criminal prevention. Needs proofs, truth, (what/when is somethign truth)
profiling/nomenclature ARE objects
datamining generates structures of data/makes visible correlations, needs selection
vs
old style categorisations of nomenclature/needs negociation/selection happens beforehand
what about 'access' to data? how will you deal with that?
pdh: how does it work & effect on organisation
what can you do with it form activist point of view?
monitoring system of shippinglists for military material to see if you can predict...
'supervised system': model of data you have and apply it to other data
ex. Greenpeace looks at imprints on wood -> dataset -> remote control model you can use of the internet
more data will become available, question is how to make them useful
organisations adapting their behaviour to new visibilities?
is it visibility for everybody? also governments, companies?
How to make sure you're not seen, is new credo!
Trevor Paglen (photographer), 30c3pictures of satellites, ex. most important media satellite for Middle East, the one next to it, is spy of US following it
Talk at 30c3: www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTVgPw7TR_k
invisibility now is lack of analysis
We have no choice: Learn to use them as well
-> find new ways to play, forget about being invisible
-> understand how organisations change
'wars of politics': guerilla mouvements of which ideology is not understandable ex Charles Taylor: dirct access to world market (economical ressources: diamonds...), independancy
global macrostructures can now be global microstructures (?)
ex. zapatistas, subcomandante Marcos (avatar) was "killed" recently to be replaced by subcomandante Galiano
anonimity has still an agency
Karin Ulmer
European NGO
not economist not statistician. try to get debates going in the public space.
beginning looking at the TTIP negotiations.
nobody looks in to the potato when you look at the US-EU treaties.
there are some issues though.
software development taking place in US
coming from a policy prespective. more data available:
Farm to fork: measure & trace everything that comes to your plate, initiative of Eu, effort in procesisng of production
eat the apple, eat the apple! what are we leaving to the next generation.
coming crisis: deconnection agriculture from society, nature and the actors.
how do we produce in EU (a lot of investment), how is that feeding into Europe's trade
EU and US negotiations: where can you make profits> sociological and ecological issues are always secondary issues.
Eurostat data, Export help Desk
you can enter any commodity, 0710
per country, price + quantity in import / export
nomenclatura: EU uses 8 different nomenclatura, subdivised in specific subcategories
development countries have less developed nomenclatura, uncomplete dbses vs EU/US
liberalization schedules: US has a more advanced nomenclatura.
trade negotiations are worked on based on a nomenclatura that is built by ?trade unions?,
WTO nomenclatura
statistics on potatoes: http://exporthelp.europa.eu/thdapp/comext/ComextServlet?action=output&viewName=eur_partners&simDate=20130101&languageId=en&ahscode1=071010&cb_reporters=000&cb_partners=all&list_years=2013&measureList=iv&measureList=ev
very minor amount of potato trade between EU and US
http://exporthelp.europa.eu/thdapp/comext/ComextServlet?simDate=20130101&action=output&viewName=partners_ms&cb_reporters=all&list_years=2013&measureList=iv,ev&ahscode1=071010&cb_partners=0400&languageId=EN
269.000 tonnes is statistically irrelevant
main export: dairy, pork, chicken, beef
numbers are constructed by national costums & added tax of the producers
what about the potato black market?how many not declared potatoes
illustration on sugar
moves & changes in trade
sugar production has been shifted to Cambodja, EU preferences, don't pay any duties when exporting sugar to EU
price in EU = reference price, stable, supported
before: preferential agreement with ex-colonial countries; 'sugar protocol', came in through raffinerie in North London - Tate & Lyle
treatment of cane sugar & beet sugar
WTO: countries ask for equal treatment, sugar protocol disappears
first importation through UK, after through all EU ports -> diversity
Lutosa, big company for potatos
http://www.lutosa.com/uk/
Difficult to connect the productor and the consumer. The producer is using intermediary countries to distribute the sugar. As far as the consumer is concerned, the sugar comes from Greece and not the actual originating country.
Potato.
Main producer is China and US produces potatoes but distributes them to China, no EU,
USTR data is very comprehensive data source
Potato policies
Polish agriculture as other countries undergoes structural transformation (what does this mean?)
Also other countries buy land in Poland as it is cheaper.
Eu minor exporter of raw material
EU most important exporter of liquor to US, exports high value product (= identity)
EU says it adds value to food. Where value is produced
make Belgian chocolate from ....
cfr reports on 'global value change?': supermarkets dictates everything : production, ..
the producers are on the low end of the chain
Legal protections and incentives:
EU cofinanced promotion projects:
Potatomania (Holland)
Protection of label of origin
lot of financial actors investing in food, speculators.
2008 food crisis. in Camerun directing resulting in protests.
a lot of new investors: from pension schemers to insurances to hedge funds. yay!
Land and water food are "safe" investments.
Correlations: if you produce more Soy, there is more people evicted.
450 euros per year per capita by liberalizing US-EU market. not cash though, just by buying stuff in the supermarket.
ah actually it would not be per capita, it would be just for who would profit from the trading. plus there would be something like 400000 lost jobs.
Computerised General Equilibrium Model, macro economic models: this technque presuposes an equilibrium in/outcome (ideology)
closed system, energy and entropy are not part of the model
Tony Lawson, Uk economist is arguing this model, if you do'nt use it, you're not gtting a job at university
http://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/newsletterarticles/interview-with-tony-lawson
Herman Daly, ecological economist, ex World Bank
Eric Toussaint, Bsl economist
Adam Curtis, poltiical economist & journalist
don't all models have the same flaws?
here mostly based on price, they always miss out on ecological level
-> you have to when you're doing abstraction: importing banana will not change anything else
extend the mode? would mean to give a price to pollution factor/pesticide use
meat is most valuable
("Ceteris paribus") all other things being equal
Standards
Endocrine Disrupter Pesticides (potato)
pesticide msaquerading as a hormone and interferes with the human hormonal system
EU is planning to regulate the use of these pesticides but has been delayed
Karin's preferences:
work on computerized model + endocrynes
Gijs: possible to feed model back into reality?
AL: financial crisis has not been predicted... social project in not in
can it be quantified? YES
K: increases the disconnection from reality
geomancy: devinatio
hans: Piketty, if you start using his model wrongly, very simple with few parameters, reduces your view on the world
measuring birds songs (?) as a parameter for the quality of life!